My opinion.
We have been concerned about this ever since the crafty and Europhobic Nigel Farage started ranting and via his UKIP creation pushed Cameron (who at the time was more than a little concerned for the election success or otherwise of his party) into calling a Referendum (‘before the end of 2017’ but now set to be 23rd June this year). Farage of course has succeeded in splitting the Tory Party down the middle, all the while collecting millions of €uros in expenses from Brussels where he and his cronies hardly ever appear.
The very last thing that the average UK citizen thinks about (including many with homes here who, incredibly, are ‘against the EU’) is conflict. Putin of course, is sitting on the sidelines bombing hell out of Syria and pushing more and more refugees to our shores and thus causing an accleration of the problem. Following a break up of the EU, he will be more than ready to take direct advantage.
What many think is pretty well what Murdoch Press and ragbag of tabloids tell them to think, which is – that Europe costs them a fortune ( they actually receive more than they put in directly and indirectly – British Universities alone receive 19€billion annually – highest grant in the EU ), that ‘the French’ don’t like them’, that everything is the fault of Brussels and more. Most voters have little actual statistical knowledge where Brussels is concerned and few if any vote in EU elections or could name their MEP. To drive a car one needs a licence but to vote....................
The ‘concessions’ that Cameron has negotiated, further compounding the ‘pain in the butt’ profile of the UK in Brussels’ are of little interest to the average UK voter who is mostly concerned about immigration, whilst not realising ( or caring ) that the bulk of UK immigration is not European or even via the EU. They also in many cases seem unaware that the Calais ‘Jungle’ could move to Dover once they are out.
The level of debate is low and the issue will largely be decided ‘down the pub’. The biggest tranche of regular voters are aged 50 – 70ans + and they form the bulk of the readership of the tabloid and Murdoch Press which of course ( see above ) is entirely against the Union. They seem to think that the City of London ( finance ) is invincible and have no sense of Asia Bank creeping up or the trading might of China and India. The US cares little for the former so called ‘Special relationship and is only interested in us for the access/gateway we provide to European trade and.....................for the surveillance capabilities of GCHQ ( best in the world – we were always good at being sneaky ) in Cheltenham. They seem unaware too that when trade tariffs kick in the WTO ( World Trade Organisation ) has estimated that overseas trade will cost them an extra £11 billion annually. The country has always had an inflated view of its importance and many genuinely believe that they can prosper in isolation.
The UK economy is built almost entirely on the back of japanese car exports, mortgage lending, ‘shopping’,flogging so-called aerospace to dodgy regimes and selling off bits of London to Russian gangsters. The national debt is £1.5 trillion and the ratio of debt to GDP is one of the highest in the west. Unsecured debt is now at a higher level than just before the 2008 crash, but this time the government does not have the reserves to prop up the banks. The Tory government is sitting on a can of worms and they know it, which is why they have introduced swinging austerity measures resulting in the near destruction of the NHS ( all the while trying to force it into the arms of their friends in the private sector. Nurses and doctors are leaving in droves and statistics are horrendous eg the worst cancer recovery rates of any rich country ) they have all but deconstructed the state education system, and squeezed local councils to the point of collapse. One reason for the mad dash to frack the entire country. They were of course voted for by just 24% of those eligible to vote.
There has of course been a move to give votes to those living outside the country for 15 or more years – but now unsurprisingly postponed until after the Referendum. Young people for whom freedom of movement and more will mean a great deal have effectively been excluded and so the decision will rest with those in middle-age who routinely vote. It is my opinion that BREXIT will occur and the more so now that everyone’s favourite buffoon (Johnson) has declared himself ‘after much heart searching’ on the NO side of things. Boris does not give a damn about Europe. Boris cares about Boris and is merely positioning himself for the time when there is a vacancy for PM which may come sooner than even he thinks, his long-declared aim.
Not a happy prospect, but one that I fear is almost certain to occur all things considered. The pound will nose-dive ( it is already falling ), and as many ex-pats try to sell their homes here, there will be a glut of properties on the market. Little sympathy in the UK of course for those who have left but one wonders just how such an over-crowded little island is going to react to all the thousands returning.
Cordialament,
D
PS
Thought for the day.
The average Brit drives home from his Japanese employer in his German 4x4
calling for a Turkish kebab or Indian take-away en route to his house where he sits on
Swedish furniture to watch a Korean or Chinese television after working on his Vietnamese PC
and so it goes on..........
And yet the biggest thing of all – ‘Suspicion of anything foreign’!
Anon.
