Thursday, 27 October 2016

Has Hollande won his bet?

The President said he would "reverse the trend" of unemployment by the end of his term. So far he has been wrong almost each month, with unemployment growing or remaining static. But in September the total dipped below 3.5 million for the first time in some years, with the biggest fall in unemployed in almost 20 years.
The rentrée suggested that government policy was bearing fruit and that Hollande was meeting his objective. But will it be enough to win him the left nomination for next year's election? His ratings in the country suggest he couldn't win in a one horse race; indeed no politician from the left is even likely to get to the second round. And perhaps the "smoke and mirrors" of the September figures will reveal that far from 66000 people finding work, the majority moved into government funded training schemes, taking them out of the unemployment totals. One hopes that this training leads to jobs, but more economic growth than forecast may be needed.
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