Dear Val,
It seems clear that whatever the outcome of the debate in the House of Commons tonight, the addition of a British component to the existing air strike capability against DAESH will be marginal. US forces with 70+ aircraft in the region have only been able to make sorties at relatively low rates because of the absence of DAESH targets capable of being destroyed by precision air attack. In the 90’s Balkan war USAF precision strikes against a more conventionally organised enemy brought Serbia in line very quickly.
The claim is made that it may however be that British involvement will strengthen a coalition against DAESH. It is indeed encouraging that the UK government has responded to a French request for support in a show of European solidarity which we are unused to seeing from this administration.
There are two unstable situations on our doorstep where the current UK government has failed to develop sound long term strategies while it has been in office – instability in the Middle East and paranoia in Russia - and unfortunately these are now associated to produce a perfect storm of a foreign affairs challenge. Tornados are not just operating out of Cyprus but also in the Baltic States.
Both these issues are on Europe’s doorstep and require a European foreign policy to reach a satisfactory result for the continent / union. However EU members are still reacting as sovereign states rather than developing a common strategy. This in spite of current UK-French joint enthusiasm for action (remember we had Sykes-Picot in 1918 whose legacy still defines much of the lack of stability in the area).
Cameron says he has classified intelligence (JIC) that there are 70,000 “moderates” who will line up on the ground when something (?) happens. This seems to be the sole basis for claiming that tonight’s vote will give the green light to a well thought out strategic plan. It risks being the equivalent of Tony Blair’s WMD moment.
It is good that Jeremy Corbyn’s instinctive opposition to air strikes has resulted in a lively debate in the country. However we should be aware that tonight’s Common’s vote will be largely irrelevant in determining the outcome of the current two foreign affairs crisis we are facing. Cameron’s government must adopt a longer term view which concentrates on strengthening Europe and together developing strategies so that we can live peacefully and constructively with our neighbours.
huwrop
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